Pemodelan Analisis Jalur terhadap Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kriminalitas di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Crime is a complex social problem and an important indicator in assessing the security stability of a region. This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect influence of several social and economic factors on crime rates in North Sumatra Province using path analysis. Secondary data was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency and the North Sumatra Regional Police in 2023, covering 33 regencies/cities. The independent variables in this study include the poverty rate (average 10.32%), open unemployment rate (average 6.28%), education level (average years of schooling 8.1 years), and population density (average 1,207 people/km²), while the dependent variable is the crime rate (average 145 cases per 100,000 population). The analysis shows that the poverty rate has the most significant direct effect on crime, with a path coefficient of 0.53. The unemployment rate has a direct effect of 0.41, while education has an indirect effect on crime through unemployment, with a total path coefficient of 0.27. The coefficient of determination (R²) of the model is 0.76, meaning that 76% of the variation in the crime rate can be explained by these variables. These findings suggest that crime prevention strategies in North Sumatra need to focus on reducing poverty and unemployment and improving the quality of education.