Pengaruh Investasi Asing Langsung, Neto Ekspor, dan Utang Luar Negeri terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto dengan Nilai Tukar sebagai Variabel Moderasi di Lima Negara ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, dan Flipina)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Net Exports, and External Debt on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the Exchange Rate as a moderating variable in five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. This research uses a quantitative method with a panel data regression approach, and the Random Effect Model (REM) was selected as the best-fit model. In addition, the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) was applied to test the moderating role of the exchange rate, using the EViews 12 SV software for data analysis. The results showed that partially, Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Debt had a positive and significant effect on GDP, while Net Export had no significant effect on GDP. Simultaneously, the three independent variables have a significant effect on GDP. The MRA test results show that Exchange Rate does not moderate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Net Export to GDP. However, the Exchange Rate is proven to significantly moderate the relationship between Foreign Debt and GDP, which indicates the existence of quasi moderation. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate stability in managing external debt, as well as the need for policies that support foreign direct investment inflows to enhance economic growth in the ASEAN region.