Perubahan Tutupan Lahan 2014-2024 dan Prediksi 2034 di Kabupaten Serdang Bedagai Bagian Hulu

Abstract

The dynamics of land cover change often occur due to several factors, both natural and human-induced. his study aimed to analyze land cover changes in Upper Serdang Bedagai for the years 2014, 2019, and 2024, and to have predicted land cover in 2034. It also sought to determine the priority factors causing those changes using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The research was conducted using the supervised classification method with Landsat 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine. The prediction of 2034 land cover used the Artificial Neural Network–Markov Chain method, processed with Idrisi Selva software. The driving factors for land cover change were analyzed using Expert Choice software. The results showed that the settlement land cover class experienced the largest increase compared to other land cover classes, with a percentage of 2.30% in 2024. In terms of land cover change, water bodies and settlements were the classes that did not change. The prediction results indicated that the plantation land cover class in 2024 would decrease by 2034. The priority criterion for land cover change was the economic aspect, followed by social, infrastructure, policy, and physical environmental aspects. The priority sub-criteria for the causes of land cover change were: population growth as the top factor, followed by housing needs, land conversion, and infrastructure needs. A consistency ratio value of 0.01 indicated that the AHP analysis result was consistent. The benefit of this research is to provide information related to changes and predictions of land cover that can be used in development planning.