Perubahan Tutupan Lahan dan Prediksinya untuk Tahun 2034 di Kabupaten Deli Serdang Bagian Tengah

Abstract

The increasing demand for land due to population growth and development led to land use conversion, affecting land cover changes, including in Central Deli Serdang Regency. This study aimed to analyze land cover changes in 2014, 2019, and 2024, predict land cover in 2034, and determine the priority factors driving land cover changes. The methods used included classification of Landsat 8 satellite imagery with supervised classification techniques, prediction using the Artificial Neural Network–Markov Chain (ANN–MC) method, and analysis of priority factors using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach. The results showed a significant increase in the residential and plantation land cover classes, while rice fields and open land experienced a decline. The 2034 prediction indicated that plantations would become the dominant land cover class (53.63%). The most influential factors in land cover change in Central Deli Serdang Regency were accessibility and infrastructure (weight 0.299), as well as physical environmental factors as the main priority alternative (weight 0.275). This research is expected to serve as a reference for future land-use planning and spatial management decision-making.