Perubahan Tutupan Lahan dan Prediksi untuk Tahun 2034 di Kabupaten Deli Serdang bagian Hilir

Abstract

The land cover change in an area could affect the land cover conditions in the surrounding areas. Therefore, monitoring and analyzing land cover changes became very important. The purpose of this research was to analyze land cover changes in the Lower Deli Serdang Regency in 2014, 2019, and 2024, to predict land cover in Lower Deli Serdang Regency in 2034, and to determine the priority factors causing land cover changes in the future. Based on the analysis results, seven land cover classifications were found in Lower Deli Serdang Regency, namely water bodies, mangroves, ponds, built-up areas, mixed gardens, rice fields, and palm oil, where the largest land cover area in 2024 was the oil palm class, accounting for 24.12% of the total area of Lower Deli Serdang Regency. In the 2034 prediction, the class that experienced the largest area increase was oil palm, accounting for 27.97% of the total area of Lower Deli Serdang Regency. The priority factors in predicting the causes of land cover change were population and population density.