Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Petani Tanaman Pangan dan Tanaman Perkebunan di Wilayah Pulau Sumatera Tahun 2019–2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the development and determining factors of the Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT) for food crops and plantation crops in Sumatra during the period of 2019–2024. The research employs a quantitative approach using a multiple linear regression model. The results reveal that the FTT for food crops tends to decline and, in several provinces, remains below the benchmark value of 100, indicating a relatively weak purchasing power among farmers. In contrast, the FTT for plantation crops remains stable and above the value of 100, reflecting a relatively better level of farmer welfare. Partially, inflation, labor force, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) do not significantly affect the FTT of food crops, while agricultural wage rates show a significant but negative effect. Meanwhile, inflation, labor force, wage rates, and GRDP significantly influence the FTT of plantation crops. Simultaneously, all independent variables including inflation, agricultural wage rates, agricultural labor force, and GRDP have a significant effect on the Farmers’ Terms of Trade in Sumatra.