Pengaruh Fertilitas, Pengangguran, dan Rasio Ketergantungan terhadap Kemiskinan di Pulau Sumatera

Abstract

This study aims to determine the extent to which fertility, unemployment, and dependency ratio affect poverty on the island of Sumatra in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The issue of poverty in this region remains a major concern closely related to the demographic and economic conditions of the area. Therefore, this study is important to provide an empirical picture of the extent to which demographic factors influence poverty levels between provinces on the island of Sumatra. This study is a quantitative study using secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analysis method used is panel data regression with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) using the eviews 12.0 program. This approach is used to observe variations between provinces and over time so that the analysis results are more accurate and comprehensive. The results show that the Fertility variable has a negative and insignificant effect on Poverty. The Unemployment variable has a positive and insignificant effect on Poverty. Meanwhile, the Dependency Ratio has a positive and significant effect on Poverty. This indicates that the Dependency Ratio factor plays an important role in increasing poverty, while the effects of Fertility and Unemployment have not shown a statistically significant impact. Simultaneously, these three variables have a significant effect on Poverty with a coefficient of determination of 83.23%, which means that most of the variation in Poverty can be explained by these three independent variables.