Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Non-Tariff Measures Negara Importir Utama dan Faktor Lain Terhadap Volume Ekspor Udang Indonesia

Abstract

Shrimp is one of Indonesia’s leading export commodities in the fisheries and marine sector, contributing significantly to the country’s foreign exchange earnings. This contribution has positioned Indonesia as one of the major shrimp exporters in the global market. However, Indonesia’s shrimp export volume has fluctuated over the years, influenced by global economic dynamics and trade policies from major importing countries such as the United States, Japan, and China. One of the policies that affect export performance is Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs), which include Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of NTMs and other economic factors on Indonesia’s shrimp export volume during the period 2006–2023. This research employs a quantitative approach using panel data analysis based on the gravity model. The variables used include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of major importing countries, economic distance, export price, exchange rate against the US dollar, and NTMs represented by SPS and TBT indicators. The data used are secondary data obtained from the World Bank, UN Comtrade, CEPII, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the Fixed Effect (FE) model, based on a natural logarithm gravity model approach executed via the Stata program. The research findings indicate that the importing countries' GDP per capita has a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia's shrimp export volume. Distance and the exchange rate show a positive but insignificant effect, while price exhibits a negative but insignificant effect. Meanwhile, NTM policies generally have a negative influence on exports, with the SPS variable having a negative and statistically significant impact, and the TBT variable showing a negative but insignificant impact.