Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah Sektor Pendidikan dan Kesehatan terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) di Indonesia Pendekatan ARDL

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of government expenditure in the education and health sectors on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia by incorporating control variables, namely population size, open unemployment rate, and gender ratio. The analytical method employed is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using EViews 10 software. The data used in this study are time series data covering the period 1990-2023, obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The results indicate that in the short run, education expenditure has a positive and significant effect on HDI, while health expenditure and population size have a negative and significant effect. The open unemployment rate and sex ratio have a negative but insignificant effect on HDI. In the long run, education expenditure has a positive but insignificant effect, while health expenditure, population size, and sex ratio have a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate has a positive but insignificant effect on HDI in Indonesia. Overall, the findings emphasize that improvements in HDI in Indonesia depend not only on the magnitude of government expenditure but also on the effectiveness of budget management, population growth control, employment expansion, and the enhancement of gender equality to achieve sustainable human development.