Analisis Perkembangan Ekspor Kratom Indonesia Ke Pasar Amerika Serikat, India, dan China Dalam Konteks Regulasi Nasional 2015-2024

Abstract

This research conducts an explanatory-descriptive study of the development of Indonesian kratom exports (2015-2024) to the United States, India, and China. The analysis focuses on the key variable of national regulatory contradictions, namely the discrepancy between the National Narcotics Agency (BNN) and the Ministry of Agriculture (KEMENTAN), as the primary driver of trade uncertainty. Using a comprehensive quantitative approach (Growth Rate, CAGR, Proportional Ratio) on UNCOMTRADE data (HS 121190), this study produces transformative empirical findings, demonstrating that domestic regulatory dilemmas causally trigger global supply chain reallocation. Indonesia's dominance of kratom export volume in the US (98%) proved fragile following FDA intervention, which was then offset by exponential growth in the bypass markets of India and China. Specifically, the findings show that the Chinese market (with an average growth rate of 94% in export volume) and India experienced massive surges during the Narcotics Regulation period until the end of the Transition Period. This growth indicates India's transformation into an upstream processing center, while China's role as a strategic re-export hub facilitates access to heavily regulated end markets. These findings provide an important contribution to the literature on the trade in controversial commodities by validating the market bias mechanism in response to domestic and external policy inconsistencies. Keywords : Kratom, Kratom Regulation, Growth Rate, CAGR, Proportional Ratio, Pattern and Trend Analysis.