Determinan Volume Ekspor Udang Indonesia di Pasar Internasional

Abstract

This study aims to determine whether there is a relationship in the equation multanitas the Indonesian shrimp production, domestic shrimp consumption, export volume of Indonesian shrimps in the international market and the price of Indonesian shrimp. This study also wanted to analyze the influence of domestic shrimp consumption and export volume of Indonesian shrimps in the international market against Indonesian shrimp production. The influence of Indonesian shrimp prices and income per capita of domestic shrimp consumption, the influence of world shrimp prices, the rupiah, Indonesian shrimp production and the price of shrimp production thailand to total shrimp export volume of Indonesia in the international market as well as the influence of world shrimp prices, interest rates and export volume of Indonesian shrimps in the international market of Indonesian shrimp prices during the study period 1980-2008. Method of analysis used to determine the relationship multanitas is 2 sls (two stage least square), and rules of identification showing that the conditions on the equation of multan suffered overidentified so allow me to use method 2 sls. Based on the estimation method 2 sls (two stage least square) on Indonesian shrimp production equation shows that the domestic shrimp consumption and export volume of Indonesian shrimps have positive and significant with confidence levels in · = 5% of Indonesian shrimp production. Indonesian shrimp prices significantly and negatively related to the domestic shrimp consumption while income per capita of Indonesia has positive and significant impact on domestic shrimp consumption. World shrimp prices, the rupiah, Indonesian shrimp production and shrimp prices thailand has positive and significant impact on total export volume of Indonesian shrimps in the international market, while the Indonesian shrimp price equation has positive and significantly to the prices of world shrimp, shrimp export volume of Indonesia and Indonesian interest rates.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat hubungan simultanitas dalam persamaan produksi udang Indonesia, konsumsi udang domestik, volume ekspor udang Indonesia di pasar internasional dan harga udang Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga ingin menganalisis pengaruh konsumsi udang domestik dan volume ekspor udang Indonesia di pasar internasional terhadap produksi udang Indonesia. Pengaruh harga udang Indonesia dan pendapatan per kapita terhadap konsumsi udang domestik, pengaruh harga udang dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, produksi udang Indonesia dan harga udang Thailand terhadap total volume ekspor udang Indonesia di pasar internasional serta pengaruh harga udang dunia, tingkat bunga dan volume ekspor udang Indonesia di pasar internasional terhadap harga udang Indonesia selama kurun waktu periode penelitian 1980-2008. Metode analisis yang digunakan untuk mengetahui hubungan simultanitas adalah 2 SLS (Two Stage Least Square). Dan kaidah identifikasinya menunjukkan bahwa kondisi pada persamaan simultan mengalami overidentified sehingga memungkinkan untuk menggunakan metode 2 SLS. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi metode 2 SLS (Two Stage Least Square) pada persamaan produksi udang Indonesia menunjukan bahwa konsumsi udang domestik dan volume ekspor udang Indonesia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dengan tingkat kepercayaan   %5 terhadap produksi udang Indonesia. Harga udang Indonesia berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap konsumsi udang domestik sementara pendapatan perkapita Indonesia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap konsumsi udang domestik. Harga udang dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, produksi udang Indonesia dan harga udang Thailand berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap total volume ekspor udang Indonesia di pasar internasional, sedangkan persamaan harga udang Indonesia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap harga udang dunia, volume ekspor udang Indonesia dan tingkat bunga Indonesia.