Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Impor Migas dan Non Migas Indonesia

Abstract

The aim of the research was to analyze the influence of PDB (Gross Domestic Product), rupiah exchange rate, and inflation rate on Indonesian total value of imports and value of oil and gas and non-oil and gas imports by using the actual data in Indonesia during the period of 1981 up to 2010. The independent variables in this research comprised of PDB (Gross Domestic Product), NTR (rupiah exchange rate), and INF (inflation rate), and the dependent variables comprised of IMP (total value of imports), MGS (value of oil and gas imports), and N_MGS (value of non-oil and gas imports). This research used multiple linear regression model, ordinary least squares (OLS), and Eviews program. The data were obtained from the secondary data from 1981 until 2010 (30 observations). The results of the research showed that PDB (Gross Domestic Product) had significant and positive influence on the total value of imports. The rupiah exchange rate had negative and significant on the total value of imports and the value of non-oil and gas imports but did not have any significant influence on the value of oil and gas imports. The inflation rate had significant and positive influence on the total value of imports and the value of non-oil and gas imports but did not have any significant influence on the value of oil and gas imports. Keywords: Imports, Gross Domestic Product, Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Inflation

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat inflasi terhadap nilai total impor, nilai impor migas dan non migas Indonesia dengan menggunakan data-data aktual di Indonesia selama periode 1981 - 2010. Variabel bebas dalam penelitian ini adalah Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), nilai tukar rupiah (NTR) dan inflasi (INF) sementara itu variabel tidak bebas adalah nilai total impor (IMP), nilai impor migas (MGS) dan nilai impor non migas Indonesia (N_MGS). Penelitian ini menggunakan model Regresi Linier Berganda, metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan menggunakan program Eviews versi 7. Data diperoleh dari data sekunder tahun 1981-2010 (30 observasi). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PDB berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap nilai total impor, nilai impor migas dan non migas. Nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai total impor dan nilai impor non migas tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap nilai impor migas. Tingkat inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai total impor dan nilai impor non migas tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap nilai impor migas. Kata Kunci : Impor, Produk Domestik Bruto, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi.