Globalisasi Ekonomi dan Produksi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

This research aim to analyse the influent of the domestic price sell, real fee and interest rate to domestic offering of crude palm oil (CPO) simultanly in North Sumatra. Analyse the influent of the export price sell, domestic price and Consumer Price Index (IHK) to export offering of crude palm oil (CPO) simultanly in North Sumatra. Analyse influent of the export price, total production and exchange rate of currency to price sell of crude palm oil (CPO) simultanly in North Sumatra. The data analysis used the method of Two-Stage-Least-Square (2SLS), the data used in this research is secunder data in the form of time series in strarting 1985 until 2007. Pursuant of the result analysis known there are all variables significantly influence the domestic offering that is mount the domestic price (P), other variable is real wage (Real W) also significant, and then interest rate (R) is also significant, and variable of credit interest rate (R) influences the domestic offering (QD) significantly. The result of probabilitas t sig, there are 2 variables influence the export offering (QE) significantly, that is overseas price (P/e) and consumer price index (IHK) wherever each of the export price (P/e) and consumer price index (IHK) have a significant effect to export offering (QE). While domestic price variable (E*Pe) do not influence to export offering significantly so that domestic price variable (E*Pe) do not influence export offering (QE) significantly. Pursuant of the result analyse known there are 2 variables influence the domestic price significantly that is total production (Q) and exchange rate (E) while overseas price (PE) do not influence to domestic price (P) significantly, total production (Q) influences to domestic price (P) significantly, while the others variable that is exchange rate (E) also influences to domestic price (P) significantly.

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh secara simultan harga jual domestik, upah riil, dan tingkat bunga terhadap penawaran domestik CPO di Sumatera Utara. Menganalisis pengaruh secara simultan harga luar negeri, harga domestik, dan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) terhadap penawaran ekspor CPO di Sumatera Utara. Menganalisis pengaruh secara simultan harga luar negeri, total produksi, dan nilai tukar mata uang terhadap harga jual CPO di Sumatera Utara. Analisis data menggunakan metode Two-stage-least-square (2SLS), data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder dalam bentuk time series di mulai tahun 1985 sampai tahun 2007. Berdasarkan hasil analisis diketahui terdapat semua variabel yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi penawaran domestik yaitu tingkat harga domestik (P), variabel lainnya yaitu upah riil (Wriil) juga signifikan, kemudian tingkat bunga (R) juga signifikan, dan variabel tingkat bunga kredit (R) signifikan mempengaruhi penawaran domestik (QD). Hasil probabilitas t sig terdapat 2 variabel yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi penawaran ekspor (QE) yaitu harga luar negeri (P/E) dan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) di mana masing-masing harga ekspor (P/E) dan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penawaran ekspor (QE). Sedangkan variabel harga domestik (E*PE) tidak signifikan pengaruhnya terhadap penawaran ekspor sehingga variabel harga domestik (E*PE) tidak signifikan mempengaruhi penawaran ekspor (QE). Berdasarkan hasil analisis diketahui terdapat 2 variabel yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi harga domestik yaitu total produksi (Q) dan kurs (E) sedangkan harga luar negeri (PE) tidak signifikan pengaruhnya terhadap harga domestik (P), total produksi (Q) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga domestik (P), sedangkan variabel lainnya seperti kurs (E) juga signifikan pengaruhnya terhadap harga domestik (P).