Analisis Integrasi dan Volatilitas Harga Beras Regional Asean terhadap Pasar Beras Indonesia

Abstract

This study is aimed at studying the competitiveness, rice market integration and volatility of the price of rice in Southeast Asian region (Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). The volatility of rice price was descriptively analyzed through quantitative analysis method with Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) model and Vector Autoregression (VAR) cointegration model approaches. The result of this study showed that the Trend Specialization Coefficient (TSC) of rice trade in the Southeast Asian region was segmented by net importers (Indonesia and the Philippines) and net exporters (Thailand and Vietnam). The rice market of Indonesia and the Philippines was not mutually integrated to that of Thailand and Vietnam. The rice market of Thailand was integrated to that of the Philippines, while the rice market of Vietnam was integrated to that of Indonesia. The Granger Causality of the rice market in the Southeast Asian region was going in the same direction. It showed that there was a government intervension on rice commodity. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) of short, medium and long term periods of Thai and Vietnamese rice price increased the rice price of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, but decreased the price of Thai rice for one deviation standard unit. The Variance Decomposition (VD) of the rice price of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam has shocked themselves and the other markets with different shock level. The price of medium rice was more volatile than that of premium rice with low quality. This volatility of rice price has made households spend high cost for rice. The rice price of Indonesia is more volatile compared to that of the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

Penelitian ini mengkaji daya saing, integrasi pasar beras dan volatilitas harga beras regional Asia Tenggara (Indonesia, Philipina, Thailand dan Vietnam). Metode analisis kuantitatif dengan pendekatan model Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA), model kointegrasi Vector Autoregression (VAR) dan analisis volatilitas harga beras secara deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Trend spesialization coeficien (TSC) perdagangan beras di regional Asia Tenggara tersegmentasi menjadi net importir (Indonesia dan Philipina) dan net eksportir (Thailand dan Vietnam). Pasar beras Indonesia dan Philipina tidak saling terintegrasi dengan pasar beras Thailand dan Vietnam. Pasar beras Thailand terintegrasi dengan pasar Philipina. Pasar beras Vietnam terintegrasi dengan pasar beras Indonesia. Granger Causality pasar beras regional Asia Tenggara searah, menunjukkan adanya intervensi pemerintah terhadap komoditas beras. Impulse response function (IRF) periode jangka pendek, sedang dan panjang harga beras Thailand dan Vietnam meningkatkan harga beras Indonesia, Philipina dan Vietnam serta menurunkan harga beras Thailand satu satuan standar deviasi. Variance decomposition (VD) harga beras Indonesia, Philipina, Thailand dan Vietnam memberikan guncangan (shock) terhadap dirinya sendiri dan pasar lainnya dengan tingkatan guncangan yang berbeda. Harga beras medium lebih volatile dibanding harga beras premium dan kualitas rendah. Akibat volatilnya harga beras menyebabkan biaya yang dikeluarkan rumah tangga untuk konsumsi beras tinggi. Harga beras Indonesia lebih volatile dibanding harga beras Philipina, Thailand dan Vietnam.