Analisis Interaksi Kebijakan Fiskal dan Moneter terhadap Stabilitas Ekonomi Makro di Indonesia

Abstract

The objective of the research was to analyze the variable contribution of the interaction of the variable of fiscal policy (TAX and GOV) and the variable of monetary policy (SBK and JUB) to the variable of the stability of macro-economy (PDB, INV, Rate of Exchange, and INF). The Research used secondary data or time series, from the first quarter of 2000 until the first quarter of 2012. The data were analyzed by using Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model and was emphasized by Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) models. The result of the analysis showed that past variable (t-1) had its contribution to the present variable, either to the variable itself or to other variables. From the estimation result, it was found that there was correlation on both sides among all variables, the variable of fiscal policy (TAX and GOV), the variable of monetary policy (SBK and JUB) and the variable of the stability of macro-economy (PDB, INV, Rate of Exchange, and INF) all of them contributed to one another. The result of IRF showed that the stability of response from all variables was formed in the period of 20 or moderate and long terms, where the responses of the other variables to the change of one variable indicated different variations, either from the positive response or from the negative one and vice versa, there was the variable of positive response or remained negative from the short term to the long one. The result of FEVD analysis showed that there was the variable which had the biggest contribution to the variable itself, either in the short term, in the moderate term, and in the long term, such as TAX, GOV, SBK, PDB, INV, and Rate of Exchange, while the another variable which had dominant influence on the variable itself, either in the short term, in the moderate term and in the long term was that JUB was dominantly influenced by PDB, and INF was dominantly influenced by SBK. The result of the analysis of the interaction of fiscal policy and monetary policy with the stability of macro-economy showed that fiscal policy effectively increased INV and the stability of Rate of Exchange through TAX and GOV, while monetary policy was more effective in increasing PDB and INF stability through the control of SBK and JUB. Therefore, monetary policy was more effective than fiscal policy in maintaining the stability of macro-economy in Indonesia.

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kontribusi variabel dari interaksi variabel kebijakan fiskal (TAX dan GOV) dan variabel kebijakan moneter (SBK dan JUB) terhadap variabel stabilitas ekonomi makro (PDB, INV, KURS, INF). Penelitian ini menggunakan data skunder atau time series yaitu dari kuartal pertama tahun 2000 sampai kuartal pertama tahun 2012. Model analisis data dalam penelitian ini adalah model Vector Autoregression (VAR) dan dipertajam dengan analisa Impulse Response Function (IRF) dan Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Hasil analisis VAR menunjukkan bahwa variabel masa lalu (t-1) berkontribusi terhadap variabel sekarang baik terhadap variabel itu sendiri dan variabel lain dan dari hasil estimasi ternyata terjadi hubungan timbal balik antara variabel dimana semua variabel yaitu variabel kebijakan fiskal (TAX dan GOV), variabel kebijakan moneter (SBK dan JUB) dan variabel stabilitas ekonomi makro (PDB, INV, KURS, INF) saling berkontribusi. Hasil analisis IRF diketahui bahwa stabilitas respon dari seluruh variabel terbentuk pada periode 20 atau jangka menengah dan jangka panjang, dimana respon variabel lain terhadap perubahan satu variabel menunjukan variasi yang berbeda baik dari respon positif ke negatif atau sebaliknya, dan ada variabel yang responya tetap positif atau tetap negatif dari jangka pendek sampai jangka panjang. Hasil Analisis FEVD menunjukan adanya variabel yang memiliki kontribusi terbesar terhadap variabel itu sendiri baik dalam jangka pendek, menengah maupun jangka panjang seperti TAX, GOV, SBK, PDB, INV, KURS, sedangkan variabel lain yang memiliki pengaruh terbesar terhadap variabel itu sendiri baik dalam jangka pendek, menengah maupun jangka panjang adalah JUB dipengaruhi terbesar oleh PDB, dan INF yang dipengaruhi terbesar oleh SBK. Hasil analisis interaksi kebijakan fiskal dan moneter terhadap stabilitas ekonomi makro menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan fiskal efektif dalam peningkatan INV dan stabilitas KURS melalui TAX dan GOV, sedangkan kebijakan moneter lebih efektif dalam peningkatan PDB dan stabilitas INF melalui pengendalian SBK dan JUB, maka kebijakan moneter lebih efektif dibandingkan dengan kebijakan fiskal dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi makro di Indonesia.