Dampak Kebijakan Anggaran Pemerintah terhadap Stabilitas Ekonomi Indonesia

Abstract

This research is intended to know “the magnitude and direction of impact of government research is intend to know the magnitude and direction of impact of government budget policy on The Indonesian economy stability” during 1971 — 1989 period. Government budget means the budget of Government Income and expenditure (APBN). Government expenditure and central tax receipts are used as the budget variables and then the rate of economic growth and the rate of inflation are used as the economic stability indicators. Secondary time series data from various reports and publications as a main source of data, such as from the National Statistics Agent (BPS), Finance Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Indonesian Bank. In order to estimate the influent of the government budget policy on The Indonesian economy stability Two Stages Least Square Method (2SLS) is used through Shazame Program by estimating Keynesian Macroeconomic Model which is modified for this research goals. The results show that the changing government budget policy will change both economic growth and inflation rate changes. The changing government expenditure policy has a positive impact on the economic growth rate with multiplier coefficient 0.3057. The tax policy change has a negative impact on the economic growth rate with multiplier coefficient —0.1697. The net impact of the changing government budget policy on the Indonesian economic growth rate is positive with multiplier coefficient 0.1360. The alteration of government expenditure policy has a positive impact on the inflation rate with multiplier coefficient 0.1280. The tax policy change has a negative impact on the inflation rate with multiplier coefficient —0.0842. The net impact of the changing government budget policy on the Indonesian inflation rate is positive with multiplier coefficient 0.0438.