Analisis Efektivitas Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Jangka Panjang dalam Menjaga Stabilitas Ekonomi Negara Emerging Market

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of long-term monetary policy transmission through the interest rate, exchange rate and asset price in maintaining economic stability in BRICi emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Indonesia) and find the variables that become leading indicators in predicting economic stability. The approach of this research is quantitative research with a model of Auto Regression Distribution Lag (ARDL) Panel and Vector Autoregression (VAR). This study yielded the findings, the panel turned out to be a leading indicator (Brazil, Russia, India, and Indonesia) in maintaining the stability of BRICi country, but its position is not stable in short run and long run. Leading main indicators of effectiveness in the control of BRICi countries stability are exports (Brazil, Russia, China) and investment (Russia, China) seen from the stability of short run and long run, where investment and export variables both in the long and short term significantly control economic stability. Leading indicator of state effectiveness in controlling the stability of BRICi countries, namely China (Asset, Investment, Export) and Russia (Interest, Investment, Export). Leading indicators in the long run for the transmission of the most recommended interest lines are consumption, foreign exchange reserves, and inflation. Leading indicators in the long run for transmission of the most recommended exchange rate is the foreign exchange reserves (interest and inflation). Leading indicators in the long term for transmission of the most recommended asset are inflation (interest, asset, investment). The results indicate interest, foreign exchange reserves and inflation strongly support the economic stability of BRICi countries.

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis efektivitas transmisi kebijakan moneter jangka panjang melalui bunga, jalur kurs dan harga aset dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi pada negara emerging market BRICi (Brazil, Rusia, India, China dan Indonesia) dan menemukan variabel yang menjadi leading indicators dalam memprediksi stabilitas ekonomi. Pendekatan penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan model Panel Auto Regression Distribution Lag (ARDL) dan Vector Autoregression (VAR). Penelitian ini menghasilkan temuan, secara panel ternyata bunga menjadi leading indicator (Brazil, Rusia, India dan Indonesia) dalam menjaga stabilitas negara BRICi, namun posisinya tidak stabil dalam short run dan long run. Leading indikator utama efektivitas dalam pengendalian stabilitas negara BRICi yaitu ekspor (Brazil, Rusia, China) dan investasi (Rusia, China) dilihat dari stabilitas short run dan long run, dimana variabel investasi dan ekspor baik dalam jangka panjang maupun pendek signifikan mengendalikan stabilitas ekonomi. Leading indikator efektivitas negara dalam pengendalian stabilitas negara-negara BRICi, yaitu China (Aset, Investasi, Ekspor) dan Rusia (Bunga, Investasi, Ekspor). Leading indikator dalam jangka panjang untuk transmisi jalur bunga yang paling direkomendasikan adalah bunga (konsumsi, cadangan devisa dan inflasi). Leading indikator dalam jangka panjang untuk transmisi jalur kurs yang paling direkomendasikan adalah cadangan devisa (bunga dan inflasi). Leading indikator dalam jangka panjang untuk transmisi aset yang paling direkomendasikan adalah inflasi (bunga, aset, investasi). Hasil tersebut mengindikasikan bunga, cadangan devisa dan inflasi sangat mendukung stabilitas ekonomi negara BRICi.