Analisis Efektivitas Inklusi Keuangan dan Financial Technology terhadap Fundamental Ekonomi dan Tingkat Kemiskinan di ASEAN

Abstract

This research aims to analyze whether financial inclusion and financial technology (FinTech) affect economic fundamentals and poverty levels in ASEAN. The purpose of further research is to find leading indicators of economic fundamentals in each ASEAN-5 country based on financial inclusion and FinTech. A total of five ASEAN developing countries, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, were observed with a period starting from 2009 to 2019. The analysis method of this study used the SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) approach, Panel Regression with cross-section weighting, and ARDL (Auto Regression Distribution Lag) panel. The results obtained from the SUR model are: (1) Financial inclusion through the credit variable and the number of ATMs and fintech through the e-money variable contributed to the most significant increase in GDP in ASEAN-5 countries. Meanwhile, the most significant contributor to the reduction in the unemployment rate from financial inclusion is through credit and savings variables and fintech through cellular phone subscriptions. (2) Thailand is the country that most effectively influences the economic fundamentals of the unemployment rate, and Indonesia is the country that most effectively influences the economic fundamentals of GDP. The results obtained from the panel regression model and cross-sectional weighting are financial inclusion through the variables of savings, credit, and the number of ATMs and fintech through mobile phone subscription variables, effective in reducing poverty rates in ASEAN-5 countries, but financial inclusion and fintech do not have a significant effect on the inflation rate. The results obtained from the ARDL Panel model are: (1) Leading indicator of economic fundamentals of unemployment rate in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand is through the variable number of bank branch offices, savings, and e-money (2) Leading indicator of economic fundamentals the inflation rate in Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia is through the savings and e-money variables (3) Thailand is the chosen country because the three observed variables, namely the number of bank branches, savings, and e-money can become leading indicators of economic fundamentals controlling inflation.

Tujuan penelitian ini menganalisis apakah inklusi keuangan dan financial technology (FinTech) berpengaruh terhadap fundamental ekonomi dan tingkat kemiskinan di ASEAN. Tujuan penelitian selanjutnya untuk menemukan leading indicator fundamental ekonomi di masing-masing negara ASEAN-5 berbasis inklusi keuangan dan FinTech. Sebanyak lima Negara berkembang ASEAN yaitu Indonesia, Filipina, Vietnam, Malaysia dan Thailand dijadikan amatan dengan periode waktu mulai tahun 2009 sampai dengan 2019. Metode analisis penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression), Regresi Panel dengan pembobotan cross-section weight, dan Panel ARDL (Auto Regression Distribution Lag). Hasil yang diperoleh dari model SUR yaitu : (1) Inklusi keuangan melalui variabel kredit dan jumlah ATM dan fintech melalui variabel e-money, menyumbang peningkatan PDB terbesar di Negara ASEAN-5. Sedangkan penyumbang pengurangan tingkat pengangguran terbesar dari inklusi keuangan yaitu melalui variabel kredit dan tabungan, serta fintech melalui variabel langganan telepon seluler (2) Thailand merupakan negara yang paling efektif mempengaruhi fundamental ekonomi tingkat pengangguran, dan Indonesia sebagai negara yang paling efektif mempengaruhi fundamental ekonomi PDB. Hasil yang diperoleh dari model regresi panel dan pembobotan cross-section weight yaitu : inklusi keuangan melalui variabel tabungan, kredit, dan jumlah ATM serta fintech melalui variabel langgangan telepon seluler, efektif dalam penurunan tingkat kemiskinan di Negara ASEAN-5, namun inklusi keuangan dan fintech tidak memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi. Hasil yang diperoleh dari model Panel ARDL yaitu : (1) Leading indicator fundamental ekonomi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia, Filipina, Vietnam, Malaysia, dan Thailand adalah melalui variabel jumlah kantor cabang bank, tabungan, dan e-money (2) Leading indicator fundamental ekonomi tingkat inflasi di Indonesia, Filipina, Vietnam, dan Malaysia adalah melalui variabel tabungan dan emoney (3) Thailand adalah negara terpilih karena ketiga variabel amatan yaitu jumlah kantor cabang bank, tabungan, dan e-money mampu menjadi leading indicator fundamental ekonomi pengendalian tingkat inflasi.