Dampak Skenario Peramalan Ekonomi terhadap Angkatan Kerja, Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja, Investasi, Upah Minimum Regional dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sektor Tersier di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

North Sumatra province has sufficient potential resources, both primary, secondary and tertiary sector resources. This resource has a great opportunity to be developed in order to increase the income of the Province of North Sumatra from the tertiary sector.This study aims to, firstly examine the factors that affect the labor force, employment, regional minimum wage investment and income of the tertiary sector, secondly to predict the impact of economic policy on the labor force, employment, regional minimum wage investment and economic sector income. tertiary in North Sumatra Province in 2025 – 2030. Simultaneous equation model, using Time Series data with a time span from 1997-2020. Parameters estimated by using the 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method, and data processing using the computer program SAS/ETS version 9.12. Forecasting is done to determine the economic policy in 2025-2030. Model forecasting simulations were conducted to analyze the impact of the North Sumatra Government's economic policies and changes in economic factors, namely; An increase in the regional minimum wage for North Sumatra, employment, investment, development spending, local taxes and a decrease in interest rates as well as a combined simulation. The results of the study indicate that economic policies on the labor force, employment, regional minimum wages, investment and economic growth The tertiary sector in North Sumatra province has not changed. The labor force has a real and significant effect 1% on the education variable and the tertiary sector workforce last year. The variable population elastic (responsive) affects the tertiary sector workforce in the long run. Labor absorption in the trade sub-sector has a significant and significant effect 1 % and 10 %, respectively. The variable of labor absorption in the inelastic trade sub-sector affects all the explanatory variables in the short and long term. Absorption of labor in the transportation sub-sector has a significant and significant effect 1%,. The inelastic transportation sub-sector labor absorption variable affects all the explanatory variables. The time trend variable has a real and significant 1 % effect on employment in the banking sub-sector. The variable of employment in the banking sub-sector is inelastic affecting all explanatory variables in the short and long term. The variable of employment of the service sub-sector has a significant and significant effect 1% on the variable of labor absorption of the service sub-sector last year. All inelastic variables affect the labor absorption variable in the service sub-sector. The real wage of the trade sub-sector has a real and significant effect 1% on the real wage of the trade sub-sector last year. All inelastic variables affect the real wage variable in the trade sub-sector. The regional minimum wage and the real wage variable for the transportation sub-sector last year had a real and significant effect 1%, on the real wage variable for the transportation sub-sector. The elastic North Sumatra regional minimum wage affects the real wages of the transportation sub-sector in the short term. Variables of the North Sumatran regional minimum wage, North Sumatran labor force and the real wage of the banking sub-sector last year. Has a real and significant effect 1%, the variable of the regional minimum wage of North Sumatra is elastic affecting the real wages of the banking sub-sector in the long term. The real wage variable of the service sub-sector has a real and significant effect 1%, all inelastic variables in the short and long term affect the real wage of the service sub-sector. The North Sumatra Regional Minimum Wage has a significant and significant effect on α 1%, and α 5% on the variables of gross regional domestic product of the tertiary sector and the regional minimum wage of North Sumatra last year. All inelastic variables affect the North Sumatra regional minimum wage in the short and long term. North Sumatra regional minimum wage has a real and significant effect 1%, on tertiary sector investment. North Sumatra regional minimum wage elastic affects tertiary sector investment in the long term. Gross Regional Domestic Product of trade sub-sector has a real and significant effect 1%. The elastic regional tax variable (responsive) affects the regional gross domestic product of the trade sub-sector. Absorption of labor in the transportation sub-sector, local taxes, investment and gross regional domestic product of the transportation sub-sector n have a real and significant impact 1 %, and 5 %, on the gross regional domestic product of the transport sub-sector. All inelastic variables affect the gross regional domestic product of the transportation sub-sector. Investments in the banking sub-sector, development spending in the banking subsector and gross regional domestic product of the banking sub-sector last year had a real and significant impact on the gross regional domestic product of the banking sub-sector. All inelastic variables affect the gross regional domestic product of the banking sub-sector. Services sub-sector development expenditure and gross regional domestic product of the service sub-sector have a real and significant effect 1%, and 5% affect the service sub-sector gross regional domestic product. The North Sumatran government's policies to increase employment, wages, investment, and reduce unemployment and the labor force are to implement a policy of increasing the regional minimum wage of North Sumatra by 10 %, increasing local taxes, development spending by 10 % and lowering interest rates. by 5 %.