| dc.description.abstract | North Sumatra province has sufficient potential resources, both primary,
secondary and tertiary sector resources. This resource has a great opportunity to be
developed in order to increase the income of the Province of North Sumatra from the
tertiary sector.This study aims to, firstly examine the factors that affect the labor
force, employment, regional minimum wage investment and income of the tertiary
sector, secondly to predict the impact of economic policy on the labor force,
employment, regional minimum wage investment and economic sector income.
tertiary in North Sumatra Province in 2025 – 2030. Simultaneous equation model,
using Time Series data with a time span from 1997-2020. Parameters estimated by
using the 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method, and data processing using the
computer program SAS/ETS version 9.12. Forecasting is done to determine the
economic policy in 2025-2030. Model forecasting simulations were conducted to
analyze the impact of the North Sumatra Government's economic policies and
changes in economic factors, namely; An increase in the regional minimum wage for
North Sumatra, employment, investment, development spending, local taxes and a
decrease in interest rates as well as a combined simulation.
The results of the study indicate that economic policies on the labor force,
employment, regional minimum wages, investment and economic growth The
tertiary sector in North Sumatra province has not changed. The labor force has a real
and significant effect 1% on the education variable and the tertiary sector workforce
last year. The variable population elastic (responsive) affects the tertiary sector
workforce in the long run. Labor absorption in the trade sub-sector has a significant
and significant effect 1 % and 10 %, respectively. The variable of labor absorption in
the inelastic trade sub-sector affects all the explanatory variables in the short and
long term. Absorption of labor in the transportation sub-sector has a significant and
significant effect 1%,. The inelastic transportation sub-sector labor absorption
variable affects all the explanatory variables. The time trend variable has a real and
significant 1 % effect on employment in the banking sub-sector. The variable of
employment in the banking sub-sector is inelastic affecting all explanatory variables
in the short and long term. The variable of employment of the service sub-sector has
a significant and significant effect 1% on the variable of labor absorption of the
service sub-sector last year. All inelastic variables affect the labor absorption
variable in the service sub-sector. The real wage of the trade sub-sector has a real
and significant effect 1% on the real wage of the trade sub-sector last year. All
inelastic variables affect the real wage variable in the trade sub-sector. The regional
minimum wage and the real wage variable for the transportation sub-sector last year
had a real and significant effect 1%, on the real wage variable for the transportation
sub-sector. The elastic North Sumatra regional minimum wage affects the real wages
of the transportation sub-sector in the short term. Variables of the North Sumatran
regional minimum wage, North Sumatran labor force and the real wage of the
banking sub-sector last year. Has a real and significant effect 1%, the variable of the
regional minimum wage of North Sumatra is elastic affecting the real wages of the
banking sub-sector in the long term. The real wage variable of the service sub-sector
has a real and significant effect 1%, all inelastic variables in the short and long term
affect the real wage of the service sub-sector. The North Sumatra Regional Minimum Wage has a significant and significant effect on α 1%, and α 5% on the
variables of gross regional domestic product of the tertiary sector and the regional
minimum wage of North Sumatra last year. All inelastic variables affect the North
Sumatra regional minimum wage in the short and long term. North Sumatra regional
minimum wage has a real and significant effect 1%, on tertiary sector investment.
North Sumatra regional minimum wage elastic affects tertiary sector investment in
the long term. Gross Regional Domestic Product of trade sub-sector has a real and
significant effect 1%. The elastic regional tax variable (responsive) affects the
regional gross domestic product of the trade sub-sector. Absorption of labor in the
transportation sub-sector, local taxes, investment and gross regional domestic
product of the transportation sub-sector n have a real and significant impact 1 %, and
5 %, on the gross regional domestic product of the transport sub-sector. All inelastic
variables affect the gross regional domestic product of the transportation sub-sector.
Investments in the banking sub-sector, development spending in the banking subsector
and gross regional domestic product of the banking sub-sector last year had a
real and significant impact on the gross regional domestic product of the banking
sub-sector. All inelastic variables affect the gross regional domestic product of the
banking sub-sector. Services sub-sector development expenditure and gross regional
domestic product of the service sub-sector have a real and significant effect 1%, and
5% affect the service sub-sector gross regional domestic product. The North
Sumatran government's policies to increase employment, wages, investment, and
reduce unemployment and the labor force are to implement a policy of increasing
the regional minimum wage of North Sumatra by 10 %, increasing local taxes,
development spending by 10 % and lowering interest rates. by 5 %. | en_US |
