Dampak Sektor Berbasis Perkebunan Terhadap Perekonomian di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

ATENG HARTONO. The impack of plantation sector towards economic in North Sumatra. Sya’ad Afifuddin as Chairman, Rahmanta and Dede Ruslan as Memberi of Advisory Committee. Plantation sector has an important role in north Sumatra economic growth. This can be seen from the contribution in economic sector, employability and the high export index. However, the growth rate of plantation during last decade was lower than economic growth of north Sumatra. This research was aimed to find out how the plantation sector give a contribution toward the economic, and the relationship of plantation sector towards economic, household income and production from its multiplier effect, structural path analisys, the gap of production and the analysis of distinction of production. The analysis data was conducted using Social Accounting Matrix model Based on north Sumatra SNSE analysis in 2013, plantation sector has a significant contribution toward the economic sector and it has a value added multiplier as well as household income multiplier, especially in palm tree, CPO industry, vegetable oil and rubber plantation. Impact analysis on multiplier plantation sector showed that the medium and high income household is higher than low income household. While based on the region, the multiplier of medium and high income household in city is higher than rural area. Moreover, plantation sector give more multiplier impact on the household who live in the city than in rural area. This result indicated that there is the income and poverty gap between city and rural area. Using Theil index formula, it can be gained the gap level of production factor analysis, the amount is 0.48 The multiplier effect of plantation sector was distributed to the production sector, medium and high income household who live in the city and rural area, capital, and employment. The result of structural path analysis in plantation sector showed that the highest global effect went to medium and high income household both in the city and rural area. And the lowest global effect went to low income household. It means that, if there is an injection toward the exogen balance like plantation sector, the multiplier impact will give much influence on medium and high income household who live in the city and rural area

ATENG HARTONO.2016. Dampak Sektor Berbasis Perkebunan Terhadap Perekonomian di Provinsi Sumatara Utara. Sya’ad Afifuddin as Chairman, Rahmanta and Dede Ruslan as Memberi of Advisory Committee Penelitian ini mengkaji bagaimana kontribusi sektor berbasis perkebunan terhadap perekonomian, keterkaitan sektor perkebunan terhadap perekonomian, pendapatan rumah tangga dan faktor produksi khusunya dilihat dari multiplier effect dan structural path analisys (SPA) serta analisis ketimpangan balas jasa faktor produksi. Perangkat analisis yang digunakan yaitu menggunakan pendekatan Sistem Neraca Sosisl Ekonomi (SNSE) atau Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Berdasarkan hasil analisis SNSE Sumatera Utara tahun 2013, sektor berbasi perkebunan yang memberi kontribusi terhadap perekonomian dan juga memiliki value added multiplier dan household income multiplier terutama sektor perkebunan kelapa sawit serta industri CPO, minyak makan dan sejenisnya serta perkebunan karet. Analisis dampak atau multiplier sektor berbasis perkebunan pada rumah tangga berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi lebih besar dibandingkan dengan rumah tangga pendapatan rendah dan juga rumah tangga rentan miskin. Sedangkan berdasarkan daerahnya, multiplier rumah tangga berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi yang berdomisili di kota lebih besar dibandingkan dengan yang berdomisili di desa. Secara total, multiliplier sektor berbasis perkebunan terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga di kota lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan rumah tangga di desa. Hal tersebut mengisyaratkan adanya kerentanan terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan, kerawanan kemiskinan serta juga ketimpangan perekonomian kota dan desa. Analisis ketimpangan balas jasa faktor produksi dengan mengaplikasikan formula Theil Indeks menghasilkan tingkat ketimpangan balas jasa faktor produksi tenaga kerja menurut sektor ekonomi sebesar 0,48. Sedangkan ketimpangan balas jasa faktor produksi sektor perkebunan sebesar 0,29. Total Multiplier effect sektor berbasis perkebunan selain didistribuskan pada sektor produksi, juga sebagian besar pada institusi rumah tangga kota berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi, modal (capital), rumah tangga desa berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi, tenaga kerja di bantu buruh serta tenaga kerja buruh/karyawan/pegawai. Hasil penghitungan structural path analisys (SPA) pada sektor berbasis perkebunan, menunjukkan bahwa global effect (GE) tertinggi dipancarkan ke rumah tangga kota dan desa berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi. Sedangkan GE terendah pada rumah tangga kota dan desa berpendapatan rendah. Artinya, jika dilakukan injeksi terhadap neraca eksogen seperti investasi pada sektor berbasis perkebunan, maka dampak (multiplier)-nya lebih dirasakan oleh rumah tangga kota dan desa berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi.