Perbandingan Metode Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda Dua Parameter dari Holt dan Metode Box-Jenkins dalam Meramalkan Hasil Produksi Kernel Kelapa Sawit PT Eka Dura Indonesia

Abstract

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia, not only owned by the government (BUMN), but also private parties, both individuals and companies. Oil Palm Research Center in Riau is a company that produces palm oil. One of them is PT. Eka Dura Indonesia are located in Riau. Where one produced by PT. Eka Dura Indonesia is the Kernel. On the production of kernels each period is not always the same so it will be difficult for decision makers in estimating production kernel. In this study, the method used to forecast or predict the kernel production is two-parameter double exponential smoothing from Holt method and Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. Based on the results of the two methods of forecasting obtained, in forecasting two-parameter double exponential smoothing from Holt method, parameter smallest error value is selected from all combinations are ..... = 0,8 and ..... = 0,2 with value .......... = 2.958.007.360.424,220 kg and ......= 51.000.126.904,866 kg. While forecasting ARIMA method from ARIMA model (1,3,2)(1,3,0)12 generate value.......= 1.968.101.351.473 kg and ......... = 45.769.798.871 kg.