Peramalan Nilai Ekpor di Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins.

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the commodity exports data in Provinsi North Sumatera using ARIMA models for forecasting 2013 – 2014. The data used is the commodity exports data in Provinsi North Sumatera by Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara from 2005-2012. ARIMA forecasting process done in several stages. The first step is to analyze the data stationary by means plot the data and see the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the data obtained. Further identify the model and estimate the parameters of the model. In order to get the fitting model for the commodity exports data in Provinsi North Sumatera is the model ARIMA (1,0,1).