Perbandingan Hasil Peramalan Penjualan Tas Planet Ocean PT. Delimas Lestari Kencana dengan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda Holt dan Metode Holt-Winters

Abstract

ABSTRACT The development of methods of forecasting with time series data quite rapidly result there are many options that the method can be used to predict the data according to the needs and the need to compare one method to the other methods that get results of prediction with high accuracy. In this thesis, comparison of forecasting will be done using measure forecasting accuracy in the form of MSE and MAPE of a forecast in calculating the value of the forecast in sale planet ocean’s bag PT. Delimas Lestari Kencana for two thousand and fifteen using Double Exponential Smoothing method by Holt and Holt-Winters method. Between the two forecasting methods obtained the best method is of Holt-Winters method because the error value of Holt-Winters more less such as MSE = 792.756,326 and MAPE = 2,184 compared with the error value of Double Exponential Smoothing by Holt such as MSE = 823.325,978 and MAPE = 3,803. Keyword: Method of Forecasting, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing by Holt, Holt-Winters Method