| dc.description.abstract | DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD (LINIER ONE
PARAMETER OF BROWN) AND BOX-JENKINS METHOD IN
PREDICTING RAINFALL IN MEDAN CITY
ABSTRACT
In this research, method that is used in predicting rain pour are double exponential
smoothing method (linier one parameter from brown) and Box-Jenkins ARIMA
method. In double exponential smoothing is firstly finding a single exponential
smoothing of the value that is got from single exponential smoothing, then,
finding a value or adaptation of a single value and determining tendency
estimation of a period of time to another that is b value and at last is doing
prediction for next period. Meanwhile, box-jenkins ARIMA method is firstly
doing differencing. It is for getting stationary data and next step is identifying
model, estimating parameter of the model, doing verification parameter of the
model, determining better model by looking at least error value of previous
chosen model and finally making prediction for next period of time. Based on
result of both prediction methods is got SSE and MSE brown value consecutively
is 977.828.884 and 16.859,119. While SSE and MSE box-jenkins value
consecutively is 665.432 and 15,475. So chosen method in this research is box jenkins ARIMA method because of less error value than brown method.
Keyword: Forecasting, Double Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins, error | en_US |
