Peramalan Jumlah Penduduk dengan Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Berganda Dua Parameter Holt Dikabupaten Labuhan Batu

Abstract

Analysis of time series is one that is often used as a forecast for the coming period, the method used is the exponential smoothing method. This method shows the weighting decreases exponentially with observed values of older and made to look Forecast smallest error. In this thesis, we will examine the number of people using multiple two- parameter exponential smoothing Holt by using measurements of accuracy in the form of Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results obtained from two double exponential smoothing method parameter Holt is giving the smallest Forecast Error by using dan Obtain the MSE = 11.802.476.145 and MAPE = -16,466 for Population Male and dan Obtain the MSE = 4.456.265.139 and MAPE = -5,364 for population woman.