Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas Pembangunan Manusia dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Wilayah di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

The main purpose of development is to create an environment that enables community to enjoy healthy life, long life and to run productive life. To materialize the three elements above, a concrete and continuous effort is done. The human development index portrays human quality. Qualified human beings are the main factor in economic growth, therefore, if the the human quality is good, the economic growth is high.

The purpose of this study was (1) to analyze the causality relationship between Human Development Index and economic growth and (2) to analyze the causality relationship between the economic growth (Xt) with Life Expectancy Rate. Literacy Rate, Average Length of Study and Real Spending per Capita (Yt). The data used in this study were the quantitative time series data in the form of annual data in figures from 2002 to 2012 obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics, journals, research findings and other literatures related to the object of this study. The data obtained were analyzed throughVAR analysis including Unit Root Test, Integration Degree Test and Granger Casuality Test. The data obtained were tested by using Eviews 5.0 program.

The result of this study showed that (1) the relationship between the variable of economic growth and Human Development Index was not a reciprocal relationship (feedback). Economic growth did not have any influence on Human Development Index, while Human Development Index had influence on economic growth with the level of confidence of 90%, (2) Economic growth and life expectancy did not have any reciprocal relationship (feedback). Life expectancy did not have any influence on economic growth, while economic growth had influence on life expectancy, and (3) Economic growth was not interconnected with the variables of literacyrate, average length of study and real spending per capita. Therefore, economic growth and the the variables of literacyrate. average length of study and real spending per capita did not influence to each other.