Pengaruh Risiko Ketidak Pastian terhadap Pengembalian Investasi pada Analisis Finansial Infrastruktur Mini Hidro di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

The development of Tomuan Small Hydro Power Plant (SHPP) and Hutapadang Small Hydro Pawer Plarit (SHPP) at Asahan district of North Sumatra Province is Electrical energy supply investments by private companies which are Public Private Pathnership (PPP). From the perspective of the private sector, it would be inleresling if the investment is profitable and risk guarantees from the government. Investment is a long term activity where everything is subject to change, the rate of return that would be obtained uncertainty. This uncertainty ra_ises the variability of the rate of return earned The study was conducted aimed to determine the factors that most affect the uncerJainty of the retum on investment and gain investment feasibility analysis of the financial aspects after considering the risk factors or uncertainties. The approach used in the analysis of the financial feasibility of mini hydro investment is probabilistic approach/stochastic simulation using Monte Carlo techniques using Crystal Ball software. Stochastic approach is to provide enough information of significance to the various possible outputs that can happen and not just a single value as a result of the deterministic approach. The linkage between these variables in a model of uncertainty of the overall project cash flow can be described in terms of the influence diagram modeling and simulation process be done in a spreadsheet application. Monte Carlo simulations peiformed a total distribution of 10. 00Ox order to form a more accurate frequency graph to forecast the value of NPVandlRR. The results obtained from the simulation shows the distribution or variability of NPV and IRR after taking account of risks and uncertainties that exist in the analysis of cash flow investment. Financial feasibility based on considerations of risk (Value at Risk) at 95% confidence level, shows that the project NPV Tomuan SHPP amounting to Rp. 40.953 billion with an IRR of 24.61% and a NPV of project Hutapadang SHPP amounted to minus Rp. -28.474 Billion with an IRR of 9.04%. The conclusion of the simulation method in this study indicates that the investment decisions of the Tomuan SHPP financially feasible considering the risk factor of less than 5%. While Hutapadang SHP P have massive risk more than 5% so it is necessary to re-evaluate the optimization study specifically designed to increase the production plan and assessment of investment costs.