Perbandingan Akurasi Metode Exponential Smoothing Brown dan ARIMA dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Produksi Crude Palm Oil (CPO) PTPN II Sawit Seberang

Abstract

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is one of the most widely used and produced types of oil in the world, accounting for more than 40% of all types of vegetable oil. Planning for forecasting the amount of Crude Palm Oil production is needed to ensure the availability of Crude Palm Oil production in the future, especially at PTPN II Sawit Seberang. In addition, this study aims to compare the accuracy of the Exponential smoothing Brownian method with the ARIMA method. The data used in this study are PTPN II Sawit Seberang Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production data for the period January 2017 to December 2022. Forecasting Crude Palm Oil production using the Exponential Smoothing Brown method with α=0.05 produces a MAPE value of 13.95 % while the best model in the ARIMA method, namely ARIMA (7,0,1) produces a MAPE of 15.02%. In order to obtain the most accurate method for forecasting Crude Palm Oil production, namely the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method. The result of forecast CPO production in 2023-2024 have decreased.