Simulasi Prediksi Curah Hujan Bulanan di Kota Medan Menggunakan Metode regresi Linier Berganda

Abstract

The research of predictive simulation of monthly rainfall in the city of Medan using multiple linear regression method . This study aims to predict the monthly rainfall in Medan using predictor variables of air temperature , air humidity , air pressure, wind speed, and duration of sun exposure . The prediction consists of 5 prediction, consist of: prediction 1 ( input data from 1982 to 2001) was used to predict the monthly rainfall from 2002-2011. Prediction 2 ( input data from 1983 to 2002) was used to predict the monthly rainfall from 2003 to 201 I. Prediction 3 ( input data from 1983 to 2002) was used to predict the monthly rainfall from 2004 to 2011 . Prediction 4 ( input data from 1985 to 2004) was used to predict the monthly rairifall from 2005 to 2011 . Prediction 5 ( input data from 1986 to 2005) was used to predict the monthly rairifallfrom 2006 to 2011. Prediction and observation results obtained show there the smallest average error occurred in August and the biggest average error occurred in June .