Identifikasi Proyeksi Perubahan Iklim terhadap Probabilitas Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Indonesia has a tropical climate with warm temperatures and high rainfall variability, which is a comfortable place for the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. Clear evidence of climate change is the increase in global air temperature which has reached 0.7°C, one of the impacts of climate change is changing the distribution of several types of mosquitoes (Aedes Aegypti). The breeding and life cycle of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito is directly affected by climate conditions. Parameters in the identification calculation are observation rainfall, observation air temperature, projection rainfall, projection air temperature, dengue fever data and population data. The statistical methods used are downscaling statistics, delta bias correction, incident rate category, principal component analysis and ordinal logistic regression. The objectives of this study are first to analyze the normal period map of rainfall, second to analyze the future climate change index based on the model scenario timeframe: short (2011 - 2040), medium (2041 - 2070) and long (2071 - 2100), and third to analyze the projected probability of dengue fever incidence in the future based on climate change projections for North Sumatra Province. The objectives of this research are to determine the normal rainfall patterns, describe the climate projection patterns, and identify the characteristics of climate change in the short-term (2011-2040), medium-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) periods based on rainfall and temperature projections in North Sumatra Province. The statistical method used to assess the influence of climate on health (dengue fever) was ordinal logistic regression analysis. The results of the ordinal logistic regression analysis showed that the appropriate rainfall range for dengue fever was in between 100 and 300 mm, while the rainfall range in North Sumatra Province was in between 50 and 600 mm. The months of March and November posed the strongest threat due to their peak periods of high rainfall intensity, leading to flooding and dengue fever outbreaks. The air temperature ranged from 24.5 to 28.5°C, which remained optimal for the development of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The climate change projection index for the short-term (2011-2040), medium-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) periods consistently indicated an increase with a magnitude of 0.4°C, which will impact the acceleration of Aedes aegypti mosquito reproduction, thereby contributing to the spread of dengue fever. The projection probability of dengue fever in North Sumatra Province indicated a high likelihood of remaining in the high-risk category, with probabilities ranging from 0.82 to 0.99.