Peramalan Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbukadi Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 2023 dengan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown

Abstract

Economic development is a business activity which aims to improve people's living standards and create jobs so that the pace of the economy remains stable. Currently almost all people feel it is difficult to get a job. According to BPS (2020), in looking at the number of unemployed, the indicator used is the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT). TPT shows the large percentage of unemployment to the labor force. The high number of unemployed is due to the high labor force and the lack of jobs. Forecasting the TPT population aged 15 years and over for 2023 will assist the government in maintaining the pace of economic development by making and optimizing policies. The technique used is the Double Exponential Smoothing method which is one parameter of Brown by looking at the error value produced is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. From this it can be seen that the TPT of the population aged 15 years and over for 2023 has increased by 6.27%.