Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Menggunakan Model Cellular Automata-Marcov Chain di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Belawan.

Abstract

Utilization and Management of the Belawan Watershed (DAS) still pays little attention to aspects of sustainability, causing problems such as reduced water quality in the Belawan Watershed. The Belawan Watershed is located in Medan City and Deli Serdang Regency with a large population. Medan City is the center of economic, educational and industrial activities. This has the potential to trigger changes in land cover around the Belawan watershed. This study aims to analyze changes in land cover in the Belawan watershed in 2012, 2017, 2022 and predict land cover in 2032 with 5 changes in parameters (driving factors), namely distance from the river, distance from the road, land height, population density and slope. This study uses Cellular Automata Marcov Chain modeling to predict changes in land cover in 2032. The results show that the predicted land cover is water bodies 998,409 ha (1,36%), dryland forest 970,399 ha (1,32%), mangrove forest 3.351,496 ha (4,58%), settlements 11.600,105 ha (15,85%), plantations 38.787,924 ha (53,01%), agriculture 8.674,632 ha (11,85%), rice fields 5.568,183 ha (7,6%) and ponds 3.218,175 ha (4,3%)