Analisis Integrasi Pasar antara Pasar Lelang Karet Kabupaten Mandailing Natal dengan Pasar Crumb Rubber Internasional

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to find out whether the price in the rubber auction market in Mandailing Natal Regency is integrated with the price of rubber in the international crumb rubber market (United States and Japan) and to find out how the influence of rubber prices in the international crumb rubber market (United States and Japan) on prices in the rubber auction market in Mandailing Natal Regency. The method of determining the research area was carried out by purposive sampling (deliberately). The selected research area was Mandailing Natal Regency, North Sumatra Province as the domestic market and the United States and Japan futures market as the international market. The data used in this study is time series data with a range of January 2018 to December 2022 with a total of 60 data used. The data analysis method used in this research is the Error Corroction Model (ECM) and Price Transmission Elasticity. negative and the probability level is greater than the 95% confidence level (-0.095521) while the rubber auction market in Mandailing Natal district and the Japanese market is imperfectly integrated where the probability value is greater than 0.05 (0.3999). the coefficient value of the rubber price coefficient at the Japanese market level is 0.082702 is positive. However, in the long term, the two markets are perfectly integrated with the rubber auction market in Mandailing Natal Regency. The transmission elasticity of the international price of crumb rubber and the price of crumb rubber in the rubber auction market in Mandailing Natal Regency are inelastic in the short and long term. However, in the long term, the transmission elasticity of the international price of crumb rubber and the price of crumb rubber in the rubber auction market is greater than in the short term.