Pola Perkembangan Produksi Jahe Kabupaten Simalungun Sumatera Utara

Abstract

The harvested area of ginger plants in Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra Province has increased significantly from 2019 to 2020. Of course this will affect the demand for and fluctuations in the price of ginger. The purpose of this study is to analyze how to forecast ginger production in 2022-2023 and to analyze the causality between ginger production and ginger prices. This research was conducted in Simalungun Regency which is a ginger production center in North Sumatra Province. The population in this study is production data and monthly ginger prices from 2019-2021, namely 36 months. The analytical method used is a scaled series analysis method or ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) using Eviews 12. The results of the study show that the best ARIMA model used for forecasting ginger production in Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra is model (1,1,0). Ginger production in Simalungun Regency has a positive trend, namely increasing with the highest forecasting results occurring in December 2023. The results of the Granger Causality Test show that the price variable significantly affects production. There is no reciprocal relationship between the production variable and the price variable, there is only a one-way relationship between price and production.