| dc.description.abstract | The harvested area of ginger plants in Simalungun
Regency, North Sumatra Province has increased significantly from 2019 to 2020.
Of course this will affect the demand for and fluctuations in the price of ginger. The
purpose of this study is to analyze how to forecast ginger production in 2022-2023
and to analyze the causality between ginger production and ginger prices. This
research was conducted in Simalungun Regency which is a ginger production center
in North Sumatra Province. The population in this study is production data and
monthly ginger prices from 2019-2021, namely 36 months. The analytical method
used is a scaled series analysis method or ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average) using Eviews 12. The results of the study show that the best
ARIMA model used for forecasting ginger production in Simalungun Regency,
North Sumatra is model (1,1,0). Ginger production in Simalungun Regency has a
positive trend, namely increasing with the highest forecasting results occurring in
December 2023. The results of the Granger Causality Test show that the price
variable significantly affects production. There is no reciprocal relationship
between the production variable and the price variable, there is only a one-way
relationship between price and production. | en_US |
