Penerapan Regresi Data Panel dalam Pemodelan Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

The Indonesian economy is a hot problem that has no end. The success of economic growth can be seen from the successful realization of the development programs that have been implemented. This research is used to determine the modeling of economic growth rates in North Sumatra from 2018-2022. There are three approaches that are often used in estimating panel regression models, including the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM). Based on the tests conducted, the model that corresponds to the rate of economic growth in North Sumatra is the Fixed Effect Model (FEM), with R2 = 0.40268 or 40.3% while the remaining 59,7% is influenced by variables outside the model, so that the model obtained from the estimation results are: Yit = 277.7493 – 0.000104PDRB – 3.513340IPM – 0.350169Education + 0.226014Poverty Level. From the results of the analysis it was found that only the HDI and education variables had a significant effect on the 2018-2022 Economic Growth Rate in 33 Regencies/Cities in the province of North Sumatra, namely GRDP, HDI, Education, and Poverty Level.