Peramalan Tingkat Kemiskinan pada Tahun 2023-2025 Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan Eksponensial Smoothing

Abstract

Poverty is a familiar problem in Indonesia, including in North Sumatra Province which has a fairly high number of poor people, namely 1,262,090 people as of September 2022. This study aims to determine predictions of the number of poor people and the poverty rate in the Province North Sumatra in the coming year to be precise in 2023-2025 with the one-parameter exponential smoothing forecasting method from Brown. Data were taken from Regencies/Cities in North Sumatra Province using the data processing method which was then carried out using Exponential Smoothing One Parameter from Brown. Based on the research results, the number of poor people in 2025 is 1,224,316 for forecasting the number of poor people in North Sumatra in the next three years. So it can be concluded that, the condition of poverty in North Sumatra which is based on the number of poor people tends to decrease every year.