Prakiraan Jumlah Kendaraan Bermotor di Kota Pematangsiantar Tahun 2024 Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Berganda

Abstract

Motorized vehicles are wheeled vehicles and their trailer used on land roads and driven by technical equipment in the form of a motor or other means. Motorized vehicles in Indonesia experience growth in number every year. This study aims to determine the estimated number of motorized vehicles in Pematangsiantar City in 2024. Data on the number of vehicles is taken from archives or records from the City of Pematangsiantar Samsat Office. Estimation of the number of motorized vehicles is carried out using the multiple exponential smoothing method by determining constant values using parameters 0 < α < 1 and obtaining the smallest MSE value. The results of the study show that the smallest MSE value for motorcycles is α = 0.9 and the estimated number of motorcycles in 2024 is 159,675 units. The smallest MSE value for passenger cars is α = 0.9 and the estimated number of passenger cars in 2024 is 48,659 units. The smallest MSE value for bus vehicles is α = 0.8 and the estimated number of buses in 2024 is 1,004 units. The smallest MSE value for freight cars is α = 0.9 and the forecast for the number of freight cars in 2024 is 15,668 units. The forecast results obtained show that the number of motorized vehicles in the city of Pematangsiantar has increased very rapidly every year.