Penerapan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Triple pada Peramalan Produksi Kacang Tanah di Tapanuli Utara 2023

Abstract

Writing in this Final Project discusses how to predict the amount of peanut production in 2023. The data used is secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra from 2010 to 2022. The method used in this study is the Triple One Parameter Exponential Smoothing Method of Brown. Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in Indonesia is the most important agricultural commodity after soybean which has a strategic role in the national food as a source of protein and vegetable oil. Peanuts contain 40-50% fat, 27% protein, 18% carbohydrates and vitamins. A good forecasting method is a method that provides forecasting results that are not much different from the actual data, or the method produces the smallest possible deviation. In this case the results of the analysis of the Double Exponential Smoothing Method with one parameter from Brown, the smallest MSE is α = 0.6, namely with MSE = 218,949.82. A good forecasting method in this case results from the analysis of the Triple Exponential Smoothing Method with one parameter from Brown, the smallest MSE is α = 0.9, namely with MSE = 259.917,49. The Triple Exponential Smoothing in 2023 is 2.702,264. It can be concluded in this study that the forecast results for the amount of peanut production in North Tapanuli Regency in 2023 have increased.