Pemodelan Spasial Daerah Rawan Banjir Rob terhadap Pengaruh Mangrove di Kecamatan Medan Belawan

Abstract

The trend of sea level rise is increasing from year to year. The phenomenon of melting ice at the north and south poles causes the volume of seawater to increase. Tidal flooding is an event that can occur as a result of this. The effects caused by tidal floods are very pronounced for people living on the coast of the sea, as well as other impacts that are felt on the surrounding ecosystem, namely the mangrove population, where the presence of tidal floods that continue to occur can have a serious impact on mangrove vegetation because it can threaten the survival of mangroves and their existence. The purpose of this study is to model and obtain information on the spatial distribution of tidal flood-prone areas with influential factors and to see the state of mangroves and mangrove species in Medan Belawan Sub-district affected by tidal floods. Spatial modeling of tidal flood-prone areas uses several variables, namely elevation, slope, distance from the river, and distance from the coast. The value of each tidal flood point was then analyzed by the principal component analysis method to obtain the weight of each variable. The results showed that four variable factors were highly correlated with tidal flooding: altitude, slope, distance from the river, and distance from the coast. The area prone to tidal flooding is 1884.64 ha with a percentage of 62% of the total study area and the area not prone to tidal flooding is 1155.71 ha with a percentage of 38% of the study area with a model validation value of 88.10%.