Proyeksi Jumlah Angka Kelahiran Penduduk dengan Menggunakan Metode Simple Moving Average di Kabupaten Karo

Abstract

The Simple Moving Average method is a time series analysis method used to predict a value for the next period based on the value of past data. In its application to predict the total population birth rate in Karo Regency this method is influenced by the magnitude of the displacement value (m). Then from each large displacement will be used to find a new average to get the forecast results. From the results of the calculations predicting the number of birth rates in Karo Regency, the results with the lowest error values are obtained, namely forecasting with a large displacement (m=3) with a calculated error MAE value of 68, MSE of 12577 and RMSE of 112 with a forecast value of 600 people in the coming period.