Metode Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda dalam Meramalkan Produksi Padi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 2025

Abstract

North Sumatra Province is one of the provinces with the largest amount of rice production in Indonesia. The amount of rice yields can be considered periodically in order to make decisions. The ability to forecast rice production using forecasting methods will be indispensable in this era. This research uses Brown's one-parameter Double Exponential Smoothing Method in forecasting rice production. The data used for forecasting is rice production data of North Sumatra Province for the period 2013-2022. With so many forecasting parameters, a deeper analysis is needed to determine the best parameters so as to minimize the MAPE value. From the method used, the results show that for the next 3 periods, rice paddy production in North Sumatra Province decreased to 1.186.635,15 tons from 2022.