Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Impor Kedelai di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is the 9th largest soybean importer in the world. Soybean import activities in Indonesia have been carried out since 1975 until now. The objectives of this study are : 1) Analyze trends in exchange rates, GDP, population, soybean production, the ratio of domestic soybean prices to imported soybeans, and the ratio of domestic soybean prices to chicken eggs; 2) analyze the factors that affecting the import volume of soybean in Indonesia and the affect of these factors on the import volume of soybean in Indonesia. The method used in this research is trend analysis, multiple linear with error correction models (ECM). The results of the trend analysis of exchange rate, GDP, population, and the ratio of domestic soybean prices to imported soybeans have a positive linear trend, while the ratio of domestic soybean prices to chicken eggs has a negative linear trend and production has a quadratic trend. Based on multiple linear analysis, the variable of GDP has a real and negative effect in the short term and long term and the variable of population has a real and positive effect only in the long term.