Aplikasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown (Studi Kasus: Taman Hewan Pematangsiantar)

Abstract

Forecasting is an important part in a decision-making process. This activity is an activity in estimating and predicting an event in the future for a long period of time. This research will discuss visitor forecasting at the Pematangsiantar Animal Park on the time scale from November 2022 to December 2022. Researchers used the Double Exponential Smoothing method which was previously proposed by Brown. This technique is one of the forecasting techniques that is carried out by analyzing visitor data that has been provided from the previous year. In this study, researchers will explain how to make forecasting using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown to be applied to a case study at the Pematangsiantar Animal Park. The data that has been collected and used is the total number of visitors in the period from June 2020 to October 2022. The results of this study state that the best α parameter is 0.1 with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 60.59% by producing a model equation Ft+m= 42264,48+694,57(m). From the research results, the number of visitors to the Pematangsiantar Animal Park in November 2022 was ≈42959 and in December 2022 was ≈43654