Analisis Permintaan dan Persaingan Ekspor Pisang Indonesia, Philipina, dan Thailand di Pasar China dengan Menggunakan Model Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS)

Abstract

Bananas are one of the leading commodities for fruit exports in Indonesia. The main market for Indonesian bananas is China. Indonesia is not the only banana exporter in the Chinese market but there are other countries namely the Philippines and Thailand. This study aims to analyze competition between banana supplier countries in the Chinese market such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand as well as analyze the factors that affect the demand for bananas in the Chinese market. The data used are time series data from quarter 1 of 2013 to quarter 4 of 2022. The data analysis method uses the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. The results of the analysis show that the value of price elasticity alone Indonesian and Thai bananas are elastic and Philippine bananas are inelastic. Indonesian bananas compete with Philippine bananas. This is evidenced by the value of cross elasticity between Indonesia and the Philippines is positive (substitution) which means having a mutually replaceable relationship. Thai and Indonesian bananas have a complementary relationship, not competing. Variables that have a significant influence on banana demand in the Chinese market are Indonesian banana prices, Philippine banana prices, Thai banana prices and total import value in the Indonesian market share, total import value Philippine market share, and total import value Thai market share.