Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Riil terhadap Balance of Trade pada Sektor Migas dan Non-Migas pada Mitra Dagang Utama Indonesia

Abstract

Given the importance of maintaining the stability of the trade balance, especially when there are fluctuations in the economy, one of which is the exchange rate, the prevailing exchange rate policy is also based on consideration of the impact of exchange rates on international trade performance. The performance of Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP), especially for the trade balance/current account, which recorded a surplus and adequate foreign exchange reserves, controlled political conditions, and attractive yields, can impact the exchange rate. This improvement in the exchange rate further encouraged the entry of foreign investors, which caused the Indonesian economy to continue to grow when the world experienced a financial crisis. The purpose of this study is to examine (1) analyze the effect of exchange rates on Indonesia's trade balance with its trading partners (2) analyze the Marshall-Lerner conditions occur so that the J-curve phenomenon occurs in the case of Indonesia with its Main Trading Partner with a symmetrical method (3) to analyze the Marshall-Lerner conditions occur so that the J-curve phenomenon occurs in the case of Indonesia with its Main Trading Partner with a symmetrical method. (4) to analyze the best model among symmetric and asymmetric models in proving the Marshall Lerner Condition of Indonesia with trading partners. Using the ARDL and NARDL methods, this study uses monthly data from 2005-2021 taken from the International Federal Reserve (IFS), a data source for foreign trade activities. The result of this study is a J curve in Indonesia's trade pattern with its trading partners, formed in the United States, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. While for the non-linear ARDL method, the J curve is formed in trading partners Netherlands, Germany, Korea, Singapore, United Kingdom, Vietnam, and Japan. The implementation of Indonesia's exchange rate policy should be followed by a policy that can suppress the exchange rate against inflation because if not followed by this policy, in the long run, it will not significantly impact Indonesia's trade performance.