Penerapan Metode Double Exponential dari Brown, Holt, untuk Meramalkan Produksi Karet di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2022-2024

Abstract

Latex production as a commodity plays an important role in North Sumatra. It is necessary to conduct research continuously and continuously regarding the volume of latex production, to anticipate and minimize the bad possibilities that arise due to the decline in the amount of latex production. The ability to predict the future will be one of the important things for the basis of decision making. In this study, using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown. The data used is latex production data in North Sumatra Province for the period 2004-2021. There are several parameters that must be evaluated in this method so that the optimal parameter is obtained which gives the smallest forecast error measure. To get optimal parameters, search for using trial and error method. For the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown, the evaluated parameter is parameter α, for the Double Exponential Smoothing method of Holt the parameters evaluated are parameter α and γ. Function. From the method used Double Exponential Smoothing two parameters from Holt produces the best model because it has a smaller MAPE value, with parameters α = 0.7 and γ = 0.8 and a MAPE value of 6.29% and the predicted value of rubber production is obtained. in North Sumatra Province for the next 3 periods, in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively 299,007.09, 290,249.25 Tons and 281,491.42 Tons.