| dc.description.abstract | Latex production as a commodity plays an important role in North Sumatra. It is necessary
to conduct research continuously and continuously regarding the volume of
latex production, to anticipate and minimize the bad possibilities that arise due to the
decline in the amount of latex production. The ability to predict the future will be one
of the important things for the basis of decision making. In this study, using the Double
Exponential Smoothing method from Brown. The data used is latex production data
in North Sumatra Province for the period 2004-2021. There are several parameters
that must be evaluated in this method so that the optimal parameter is obtained which
gives the smallest forecast error measure. To get optimal parameters, search for using
trial and error method. For the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown,
the evaluated parameter is parameter α, for the Double Exponential Smoothing method
of Holt the parameters evaluated are parameter α and γ. Function. From the method
used Double Exponential Smoothing two parameters from Holt produces the best
model because it has a smaller MAPE value, with parameters α = 0.7 and γ = 0.8 and
a MAPE value of 6.29% and the predicted value of rubber production is obtained. in
North Sumatra Province for the next 3 periods, in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively
299,007.09, 290,249.25 Tons and 281,491.42 Tons. | en_US |
