Penerapan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda Dua Parameter Holt dan Kuadratik Satu Parameter Brown pada Peramalan Pengguna Narkoba di Kota Binjai

Abstract

Exponential smoothing method is one of many popular data forecasting methods that can be used when the data contains stationary, trend, and seasonal patterns. The forecasting method of drug users in Binjai City, which has a trend data pat-tern, was conducted using the Penerapan Double Exponential Smoothing Method Wth Two Parameter Holt and Kuadratik Satu Parameter Brown. This study aims to compare the two methods by measuring the accuracy of the forecasting in terms of MAPE. From the calculation of the two forecasting methods, the more effective Kuadratik Satu Parameter Brown Parameter with α = 0.2, which result-ed in and MAPE = 18.352 % compared to the Double Exponential Smoothing Method With Two Parameter α = 0,6 and γ = 0.3, which resulted in MAPE = 38,546%.